June 15, 2016

Independent Fiscal Office's Latest State Revenue Estimate $127M Higher Than Governor's

The Independent Fiscal Office Wednesday said the FY 2015-16 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $31.0 billion, an increase of $406 million (1.3 percent) over FY 2014-15, according to the latest state revenue estimate made by the IFO.
The updated estimate is $23 million lower than the one issued by the IFO in May, but $127 million higher than the estimate certified by the governor in December.
By statute, the office issues its initial revenue estimate at the beginning of May and its official revenue estimate by June 15.
FY 2016-17 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be $31.7 billion, an increase of $662 million (2.1 percent) over FY 2015-16. The projection includes $106 million for the impact of recent statutory changes to the Liquor Code.
Excluding those statutory changes, the base projection is $31 million lower than the one issued by the IFO in May.
“The downward adjustment in the base estimate reflects the recent underperformance of wage and salary withholding payments,” said IFO Director Matthew Knittel. “Wages are the largest component of the state economy, and the recent weakness in collections motivated a revision to the economic outlook for 2016 and 2017.”
A copy of the revenue estimate is available online.   The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections.
Click Here for the latest IFO General Fund Snapshot of state revenue.