June 17, 2013

Independent Fiscal Office Cuts $300 Million From Deficit Estimate

The Independent Fiscal Office Monday released its official revenue estimate saying the Fy 2013-14 deficit will be $220 million, not the $520 million it estimated earlier, according to director Matthew Knittel.
FY 2012-13 unrestricted General Fund revenues are estimated to be $28.734 billion, $144 million above the estimate certified with the enactment of the FY 2012-13 budget. Projected receipts for the current year are $153 higher than the IFO’s May 1 initial estimate.
The statutory deadline for the IFO’s official estimate occurs before June sales tax remittances and the quarterly estimated payments for personal income and corporate income taxes are recorded. Accordingly, the estimate for the current fiscal year is based on collections through May and the IFO’s expectations for June revenues.
FY 2013-14 unrestricted General Fund revenues are projected to be $29.073 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent over the prior year. The projection is made on a current law basis, and it does not include the impact of proposed changes to statute.  This amount is $147 million higher than the IFO’s May 1 initial estimate.
“This official estimate incorporates projections for sustained, but modest, economic growth over the next fiscal year,” Knittel said. “The economy continues to expand, but it faces headwinds as consumers adapt to the expiration of the payroll tax cut and as the automatic spending cuts from the federal sequester are implemented. Prospects for stronger growth improve toward the end of 2013 and into 2014.”
A copy of the official revenue estimate is available online.