Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among Keystone State Republicans and trails President Barack Obama 49 – 38 percent in an early look at the 2012 presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Pennsylvania voters approve 47 – 26 percent of the job Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., is doing, with 27 percent undecided. Republicans are split 37 – 38 percent, with 24 percent undecided.
Romney leads the Republican primary pack with 21 percent, followed by Santorum with 16 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 11 percent and no other candidate above 8 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Another 17 percent of Republicans are undecided.
In possible presidential election matchups, President Obama tops Romney 47 – 40 percent and leads Santorum 49 – 38 percent. Independent voters back Obama, 41 – 37 percent over Romney and 46 – 35 percent over Santorum.
Obama gets a split 48 – 48 percent job approval rating in Pennsylvania, compared to a negative 42 – 53 percent April 28, his lowest Quinnipiac University poll number in the Keystone State. Independent voters split 48 – 47 percent, compared to a negative 37 – 57 percent April 28.
Voters say 48 – 46 percent that Obama deserves to be reelected, also up from a negative 42 – 52 percent. Again, independent voters go from a negative 37 – 56 percent April 28 to a slightly negative 46 – 49 percent today.
“Whether it’s still the Osama bin Laden bounce or because voters are taking a closer look at the alternatives, President Barack Obama’s fortunes in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state in presidential elections, has improved – at least for now,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“Independent voters, a critical bloc, have shifted dramatically in the six weeks since President Obama suffered his all-time low in Pennsylvania.”
“Native son Rick Santorum is not feeling the love among Pennsylvania Republicans or among voters in general,” Malloy added. “But Santorum does better in a GOP primary than other more nationally-known candidates such as Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, who gets just 5 percent of the Republican vote.”
Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.
Pennsylvania voters approve 47 – 26 percent of the job Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., is doing, with 27 percent undecided. Republicans are split 37 – 38 percent, with 24 percent undecided.
Voters say 47 – 31 percent, including 46 – 34 percent among independent voters, that Casey deserves to be reelected in 2012.
Running against an unnamed Republican challenger, Casey wins 47 – 32 percent, including 44 – 26 percent among independent voters.
“You can’t beat somebody with nobody and right now nobody is emerging as a possible Republican challenger to Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.,” Malloy said.
“Pennsylvania voters like their senior senator, but more than one-in-four are undecided. And in three measures, job approval, deserves reelection and Casey v. nobody, Casey is short of that magic 50 percent mark that allows incumbents to sleep more comfortably at night.”
First-term Sen. Pat Toomey has a 45 – 28 percent approval rating.
From June 7 – 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,277 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
Complete poll results are available online.
