December 3, 2018

November State Revenue Collections $95.5 Million Above Estimate; $333.6M Above Estimates Year-To-Date

On December 3, the Department of Revenue announced Pennsylvania collected $2.3 billion in General Fund revenue in November, which was $95.5 million, or 4.3 percent, more than anticipated.
Fiscal year-to-date General Fund collections total $12.4 billion, which is $333.6 million, or 2.8 percent, above estimate.
Since the start of the 2018-19 fiscal year, overall tax revenue is $913.3 million, or 8.2 percent, more than was collected in the same period of the last fiscal year.
In its Monthly Trends Report released the same day, the Independent Fiscal Office noted Corporate net income tax and sales and use tax (SUT) both came in above estimate for the month. Non-tax revenues and other tax revenues also came in higher than expected, while personal income tax (PIT) fell below estimate.
IFO had slightly different revenue projections for the fiscal year, but ended up about the same place above estimates for fiscal year to date.
Their projections show General Fund collections were $154.1 million (7.1 percent) above estimate for November and $338.9 million (2.8 percent) above estimate for the fiscal year-to-date.
On November 15, the IFO projected a $1.7 billion FY 2019-20 budget deficit even in the face of better than expected increases in state revenue.
Revenue Numbers
Sales tax receipts totaled $910.2 million for November, $45.4 million above estimate. Year-to-date sales tax collections total $4.7 billion, which is $140 million, or 3.1 percent, more than anticipated.
Personal income tax (PIT) revenue in November was $834.8 million, $30.2 million below estimate. This brings year-to-date PIT collections to $4.9 billion, which is $71 million, or 1.4 percent, below estimate.
November corporation tax revenue of $138 million was $27.3 million above estimate. Year-to-date corporation tax collections total $1.1 billion, which is $207.1 million, or 23.7 percent, above estimate.
Inheritance tax revenue for the month was $81.8 million, $5.1 million below estimate, bringing the year-to-date total to $430.7 million, which is $4 million, or 0.9 percent, above estimate.
Realty transfer tax revenue was $46.4 million for November, $700,000 below estimate, bringing the fiscal-year total to $228.8 million, which is $4.7 million, or 2 percent, less than anticipated.
Other General Fund tax revenue, including cigarette, malt beverage, liquor and gaming taxes, totaled $167.7 million for the month, $10.1 million above estimate and bringing the year-to-date total to $759.7 million, which is $10.5 million, or 1.4 percent, below estimate.
Non-tax revenue totaled $157.8 million for the month, $48.7 million above estimate, bringing the year-to-date total to $261.9 million, which is $68.7 million, or 35.6 percent, above estimate.
In addition to the General Fund collections, the Motor License Fund received $260.8 million for the month, $14.4 million above estimate. Fiscal year-to-date collections for the fund — which include the commonly known gas and diesel taxes, as well as other license, fine and fee revenues — total $1.2 billion, which is $21.4 million, or 1.8 percent, below estimate.